Key takeaways
- Read the chart from the margin after your touchdown: go for two when two points lands on a number that changes what the opponent needs, such as a 3-, 7- or 14-point lead or a tie.
- When the kick itself secures the next important number, kick, because a kicked try succeeds far more often than a two-point try.
- On average two beats one only when your two-point rate is more than half your extra-point rate; at the league's 2015-2025 rate of 47.7 percent the break-even extra-point rate is about 95 percent.
- Treat league-wide rates as a starting point, not a forecast: annual NFL two-point rates ranged from 40.7 to 55.1 percent between 2015 and 2025.
A two-point chart is a lookup table. Find the score after your touchdown, before the try, and it tells you whether to kick or go for two. It is not a matter of taste: the chart falls out of the scoring values. A field goal is worth 3, a touchdown with a kick 7, a touchdown with a two-point conversion 8, and the chart simply asks which try leaves the scoreboard on a number that changes what the other team needs.
Underneath it sits a second test. On average, going for two is worth more than kicking only when the two-point success rate is more than half the extra-point rate. Across the 2015 to 2025 NFL seasons, teams converted 631 of 1,322 two-point tries, or 47.7 percent, according to the league's own Record & Fact Book.
The rules that set the price
For the 2026 season the NFL rulebook spots a kicked try 15 yards from the goal line and a run or pass try at the 2 (Rule 11-3). A successful kick is worth one point and a touchdown on the try is worth two. The defence can score as well: if a try ends in a touchdown by either team, two points are awarded, so a long interception or fumble return is worth two to the defence. A play that would normally be a safety gives the opponent one point. The game clock does not run during the try.
Those prices are recent. The Record & Fact Book dates the two-point conversion to 1994, and records that in 2015 clubs moved the kicking spot back to the defence's 15-yard line, set the two-point spot at the 2, and let the defence return a blocked kick, fumble or interception for two points. The old kick was close to automatic: in the 1998 to 2000 seasons studied by the economist David Romer, 98.4 percent of extra-point attempts were good.
The scores that matter late
Late in a game, the question is not how many points a try adds on average but which scoring sequences can still catch up. With 3, 7 and 8 as the building blocks, a few margins do almost all the work.
| Lead | What the trailing team needs |
|---|---|
| 1 or 2 | A field goal wins |
| 3 | A field goal ties |
| 4 to 6 | A touchdown wins (at 6, a touchdown without the kick only ties) |
| 7 | A touchdown and kick ties |
| 8 | A touchdown and two-point conversion ties |
| 9 to 16 | Two scores (at 14, two touchdowns with kicks tie; at 16, both need two-point conversions) |
| 17 or more | Three scores |
The most useful numbers are the edges of those bands: 2 and 3, 3 and 4, 6 and 7, 7 and 8, 8 and 9, and 13 and 14. A two-point try is worth the risk when two points crosses one of those edges and one point does not. When both cross an edge, the near-certain kick usually wins unless the extra edge two points would reach is worth the risk of a miss.
The chart, rebuilt
For each score after your touchdown, compare where a successful kick leaves you with where a successful two-point try leaves you, and where a failed one leaves you.
| After your touchdown you lead by | Kick makes it | Two makes it (a miss leaves) | Chart | Why |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 2 | 3 (1) | Go for two | At 3, a field goal only ties |
| 2 | 3 | 4 (2) | Kick | The kick almost guarantees a field goal can only tie; two would force a touchdown, but a miss leaves a field goal enough to beat you |
| 5 | 6 | 7 (5) | Go for two | At 7, a touchdown and kick only ties |
| 6 | 7 | 8 (6) | Kick | The kick almost guarantees a touchdown and kick only ties; two would force a two-point try, but a miss leaves a touchdown and kick enough to beat you |
| 7 | 8 | 9 (7) | Kick | The kick almost guarantees the opponent needs a two-point try to tie; two would make it a two-score game, but a miss leaves a touchdown and kick enough to tie |
| 12 | 13 | 14 (12) | Go for two | At 14, two touchdowns with kicks only tie |
| After your touchdown you trail by | Kick makes it | Two makes it (a miss leaves) | Chart | Why |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Tied | Lead by 1 (trail by 1) | Usually kick | Taking the lead is a separate end-of-game call |
| 2 | Trail by 1 | Tied (trail by 2) | Go for two | Only two points ties it |
| 4 | Trail by 3 | Trail by 2 (trail by 4) | Kick | The kick almost guarantees a field goal can tie; two would let a field goal win, but a miss leaves you needing a touchdown |
| 5 | Trail by 4 | Trail by 3 (trail by 5) | Go for two | At 3, a field goal ties; at 4, you need a touchdown |
| 8 | Trail by 7 | Trail by 6 (trail by 8) | Kick | The kick almost guarantees a touchdown and kick can tie; two would make that touchdown a winner, but a miss leaves you needing a two-point try just to tie |
| 9 | Trail by 8 | Trail by 7 (trail by 9) | Close call | See below |
| 10 | Trail by 9 | Trail by 8 (trail by 10) | Go for two | 8 is one score; 9 is two |
For most margins not listed, either the kick itself reaches the next important number or neither try reaches one, so the kick's much higher success rate decides it.
The chart rests on three assumptions worth stating. It assumes few possessions remain, so the edges in the first table are what matter. It assumes the remaining scores come in 3s, 7s and 8s. And it assumes later tries succeed at roughly league rates.
The close call at minus 9
Trailing by 9 after a touchdown is the instructive case. Assume a two-point rate of 48 percent, the league's 2015 to 2025 figure rounded, and, purely as an illustrative input, a 94 percent extra-point rate.
- Kick now. 94 percent of the time you trail by 8. To tie with one more touchdown you then need a two-point conversion: 0.94 × 0.48 ≈ 0.45.
- Go for two now. 48 percent of the time you trail by 7, and one more touchdown and kick ties it: 0.48 × 0.94 ≈ 0.45. The other 52 percent, you still trail by 9 and need two scores.
The two routes multiply the same two probabilities in a different order, so on these assumptions they come out identical whatever rates you plug in. What differs is when you find out. Going for two first tells you immediately whether the rest of the game needs one score or two, and that information can shape how you use the clock and your timeouts. The chart cannot settle it; your own conversion rates and the time left can.
The expected-value test
Away from those edges, early in a game or when no margin line is in play, the question becomes average points.
- A kicked try is worth the extra-point success rate multiplied by 1.
- A two-point try is worth the two-point success rate multiplied by 2.
So two is the better average when the two-point rate is more than half the extra-point rate. At the league's 2015 to 2025 rate of 47.7 percent, a two-point try averaged about 0.95 points. Kicking therefore has the higher average only for a kicker who converts more than about 95 percent of extra points. The Record & Fact Book table used here does not report extra-point rates, so treat that side as an input and use your own kicker's figure.
Three cautions stop this becoming a rule:
- The league rate is a mix. It pools every team and every situation in which a coach chose to go for two, so a particular offence's rate can be well above or below it.
- It moves around. From 2015 to 2025 the annual rate ran from 40.7 percent in 2024 to 55.1 percent in 2023, on samples of only 86 to 154 attempts a season.
- Average points are the wrong currency late. Romer, analysing fourth downs, treats every point as equally valuable and notes this "is clearly not a good assumption late in a game", while showing it is an excellent approximation early. That is exactly why the chart overrides expected value in the final quarter.
How often the chart is live
Often. The 2026 Record & Fact Book counts 145 of the 272 games in the 2025 season, 53.3 percent, as decided by 8 points or fewer, the range a single touchdown and two-point conversion can cover. Those are the games in which the margins above are still in play at the end, which is why a choice that looks like a single point in the box score can decide which scores the other side needs.
Using it in a game you are playing
In Football Career Sim 2026, where you play one quarterback's whole career, the late drive and the red zone are where these margins get made: the game's drives model field position, timeouts, red-zone situations and clock management. The chart is worth knowing before that drive starts, because it tells you what score you are really driving towards. Everything in the game is fictional, and its results come from its own model rather than any forecast of real football. Understanding probability in sports sims explains why a 48 percent play still fails more often than it succeeds, and clock management in the final two minutes covers the time side of the same late drives. The career sim playing guide covers the rest of the season.
If you prefer the front office to the huddle, the football draft simulator guide applies the same habit of reading a scoreboard as a target to roster building. More American football explainers are on our hub, and the full set of sports career and GM games is listed in the catalogue.
Good to know
Frequently asked questions
When should a team go for two?
What is the NFL two-point conversion success rate?
Where is the ball spotted for an extra point and a two-point try?
Can the defence score on a two-point conversion?
Is going for two better than kicking on average?
Sources
- 2026 NFL Rulebook (opens in a new tab)NFL Football Operations — accessed
- Official 2026 NFL Record & Fact Book (PDF) (opens in a new tab)National Football League — accessed
- Do Firms Maximize? Evidence from Professional Football (opens in a new tab)Journal of Political Economy (David Romer, 2006; author's copy) — accessed
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