Key takeaways
- A shot's value is its make probability times its points: a 40% two is worth 0.80 points, a 36% three 1.08.
- To beat a 40% mid-range jumper, a three only needs to go in about 27% of the time.
- Analytics-driven teams, as Wikipedia notes of Daryl Morey's approach, favour threes and layups over mid-range jumpers.
- eFG% adjusts for the extra point of a three; true shooting also counts free throws, weighting each attempt at 0.44 of a shot.
- Context still matters: the shot clock, the defender and the score can make a lower-value shot the right one.
Every possession ends with a decision: shoot now, pass for a better look, or attack the basket. Good shot selection means choosing the shot that is worth the most points on average, not the one that feels best. Basketball analytics put a number on that idea: expected points per attempt.
Expected points: the one formula
A shot's value is the chance it goes in multiplied by the points it is worth:
Expected points = make probability × point value
Illustrative numbers for typical shots:
| Shot | Make rate (example) | Points | Expected points per attempt |
|---|---|---|---|
| Layup or dunk at the rim | 60% | 2 | 1.20 |
| Long mid-range two | 40% | 2 | 0.80 |
| Above-the-break three | 36% | 3 | 1.08 |
| Corner three | 39% | 3 | 1.17 |
The make rates are examples, but the shape is the point: the long two is the worst value on the table, because it is harder than a layup yet worth no more. A three only needs to go in about 26.7% of the time to match a 40% mid-range jumper: 0.80 ÷ 3 = 0.267.
Why corner threes stand out
The three-point line is not the same distance everywhere. Wikipedia notes the NBA line is 23 ft 9 in at the top but 22 ft in the corners, a distance it has used since the 1997–98 season. That makes the corner the shortest three on an NBA floor, for the same three points. Basketball offense types shows how systems create them.
How analytics changed the game
Wikipedia describes the basketball philosophy of executive Daryl Morey, heavily reliant on analytics, as favouring three-point field goals and layups over mid-range jumpers, and notes he co-founded the MIT Sloan Sports Analytics Conference. Wikipedia's article on the three-point shot also credits Stephen Curry with inspiring teams to use the three far more heavily, including from well beyond the arc. The same article says NBA three-point attempts have become increasingly frequent, particularly from mid-2015 onwards.
Measuring a shooter: eFG% and true shooting
Plain field goal percentage treats a three like a two. Two adjusted measures fix that:
| Measure | Formula | What it adds |
|---|---|---|
| Effective field goal % (eFG%) | (FG + 0.5 × 3P) ÷ FGA | The extra point a three is worth |
| True shooting % (TS%) | PTS ÷ (2 × (FGA + 0.44 × FTA)) | Free throws, each attempt weighted at 0.44 of a shot |
Worked example. Two players each score 20 points:
- Player A: 10 of 20 on twos, no threes, no free throws. eFG% = 10 ÷ 20 = 50%.
- Player B: 7 of 14, including 6 threes. Points: 1 two (2) + 6 threes (18) = 20. eFG% = (7 + 3) ÷ 14 = 71%.
Same points, very different cost in possessions. Wikipedia explains the idea behind eFG%: it shows the percentage a two-point-only shooter would need to match the output. A pure two-point shooter would have to make 10 of Player B's 14 attempts, about 71%, to score the same 20 points. Basketball advanced stats explained covers these measures and others.
When the "wrong" shot is right
Expected points describe averages, not every possession:
- Shot clock. With two seconds left, a contested long two beats a shot-clock violation, which is worth zero.
- Defender. A wide-open mid-range jumper for a strong shooter can be worth more than a contested three.
- Game state. Down three with seconds left, a two cannot tie the game unless it comes with a foul and a made free throw.
- Free throws. Attacking the rim can also draw fouls, and the free throws that follow add points without a field-goal attempt, which is why true shooting counts them. Wikipedia notes that big men who score around the basket and draw free throws at a high rate can post high true shooting percentages for exactly that reason.
Reading your own shot selection
The box score shows makes and attempts by type; how to read a basketball box score explains the columns. Track where your attempts come from, and whether your eFG% rises when you cut long twos. Efficiency also changes how milestones should be read; double-doubles and triple-doubles shows why a big stat line is not always an efficient one.
In Basketball Career Pro League, one of our sports career games, you take the shots yourself and see the results in the box score after each game; the game guide explains how training feeds your shooting.
Good to know
Frequently asked questions
Why do analytics favour threes and layups over mid-range shots?
How do you calculate points per shot?
What is the difference between eFG% and true shooting percentage?
Is a mid-range shot ever a good shot?
Sources
- Effective field goal percentage (opens in a new tab)Wikipedia — accessed
- True shooting percentage (opens in a new tab)Wikipedia — accessed
- Three-point field goal (opens in a new tab)Wikipedia — accessed
- Daryl Morey (opens in a new tab)Wikipedia — accessed
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